As we approach Halloween and the joy of seeing little monsters begging at your door for a bit of candy, there’s another monster lurking about, waiting to pounce on unsuspecting seniors. Her name is IRMAA and she’s far more terrifying and harmful than anything else you’ll see. She doesn’t beg and she’ll take far more… [Continue]
July 31, 2023 By
When Stocks Identify as Bonds
♫ It’s a mixed up, muddled up, shook up world ♫ – Ray Davies, The Kinks Overall, 2022 was one of the worst years for investors. Bonds had stock sized losses and so did the S&P 500. Fortunately, some stock indices identified as bonds, suggesting a way to improve return reliability. Normally, 5-year Treasury Bonds… [Continue]
May 16, 2023 By
The Usual Bank Failures
Warren Buffet wrote, “It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.” Sure enough, the recent pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve has exposed a few wet noodles among the banks and real estate companies. The way things are heading, we soon may have enough for a… [Continue]
January 1, 2023 By
Why Inflation Reports are 6.5 Months Out of Date
The news has been all abuzz about inflation. But as is typical with news, the reports may be misleading. The reason is the inflation reports are 6.5 months out of date the day they are reported. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the November 2022 Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) one-year inflation rate dropped to… [Continue]
August 16, 2022 By
Should Debt Be Paid Down?
Clients frequently ask if their debt should be paid down. Generally, we recommend avoiding debt other than a reasonable mortgage, especially as retirement approaches. In some cases, however, debt can be innocuous or even helpful. This chart summarizes the logical process for deciding to pay off debt. The steps are described below Cash Flow Risk… [Continue]
July 7, 2022 By
How Long Are Bear Markets?
When the market is down, our mantra is time eats volatility. We are very confident in the maxim because of the mathematics of volatility, but it’s important to understand how much time. S&P 500 Bear Markets To answer this question, we examine the monthly total returns of the S&P 500 since June 1927 through May… [Continue]
